Analysis: Big spenders reinforce boom-bust cycle

Peter Clarke, EEtimes
(06/01/2010 7:58 AM EDT)

LONDON — News of large capital expenditure increases for chip manufacturing are now coming thick and fast. But with chip manufacturing utilization bumping along in excess of 90 percent — effectively sold out — this sudden surge in spending intention is not going to make an impact any time soon. When it does have an impact it will almost certainly produce an oversupply bust sometime in 2012 or 2013 as consolidation amongsts pure-play IDMs exacerbates the boom-bust cycle.

Analysts and statisticians are looking at an annual global chip market that could jump in 2010, albeit off the back of a very bad 2009, by more than 30 percent. That growth now appears to be locked-in barring any major macro-economic shocks to the system such as a 9/11-type act of terrorism or the collapse of a major currency.

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